It is a time of euphoria. Check if your pants are still on.
The Economist is puzzled this week.
- A jobs apocalypse may or may not arrive.
- Markets are correctly pricing or ignoring energy supply risk
- The S&P500 is on a rollercoaster, down 7% in April, up 8% year to date
How will we know if it’s real performance or not? Is this a bubble, or are we going to reach a top and then tip into recession?
We won’t know until it does. It’s very hard to predict the end of things.
Undertainty and optimism often coexist right before systems become fragile.
What matters is how prepared you are if the music stops.
As Warren Buffett wrote, it’s only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked.
Good risk management is never more important than when it seems everthing is going swimmingly well.
Handcrafted insight 