Saturday, 8.24pm
Sheffield, U.K.
Supposedly, some writers work in rowdy coffee shops or compose whole novels to Megadeth, but when I write, I wear a pair of chainsaw operator’s earmuffs. – Anthony Doerr
I don’t know what you think about LLMs and this new breed of AI tools.
Some people that I follow on social media hate it. Viscerally. They see it as a large scale theft of intellectual property made in broad daylight. Piracy. Simple as that.
There is a specialised world where that is perhaps not quite as straightforward.
The world of Free/Libre/Open Source Software (FLOSS) has put code into the world for years, because of the stubborn belief of a few people that code was too important, something that mattered too much, to be locked away.
It deserved, it needed to be shared.
If you take this massive dataset of open, working code, and then develop the tools to generate new code is that ok?
Especially when many of those tools themselves are open source?
So, we’re not losing control, no one is taking over, we still have the ability to benefit from these models while having control because of the freedoms that come with the code.
Now, I’m not really arguing the legalities or opinions on the matter – I’m not really that interested in those.
I’m interested in the practical matter of what this means for you and me.
Many years ago I had a car, a Citroen ZX. I was doing a mechanics course at college as a evening thing – I wanted to learn how to fix cars. And I learned something about the brakes.
This was a long time ago, so I don’t remember much, but the essence of it was that you needed a seal to keep the brakes working properly.
I went into a garage and asked if they stocked a brake repair kit – the seals and things that were required.
The owner looked me up and down and told me that no one repaired brakes any more. It took too long and wasn’t worth the money. You just swapped them out and put a new unit in.
He said if I was ever looking for a job he’d be happy to take me on.
I guess being interested in the details of something like that was indicative of a worker that might be useful.
Instead, I spend a lot of time with computers getting them to do what I want them to do.
You can look at code in the same way as I looked at that brake repair job – we want to do everything from scratch and do the fix properly.
Coding was, until last year, one of the few hand crafts – something where every line was tapped out by a human.
Now, that isn’t the case anymore.
Last year I wrote something. I made a thing. And, I kept a little journal of how I got on.
It took me from the 23rd of November to the 13th of December to work out the kinks and get something working.
What’s that, 20 days?
Recently, I did this job again. Now, I knew what I wanted to do, but I was coding everything from scratch.
Or rather, I was getting an LLM to code what I wanted.
I was thinking about the structure of the code and then filling in the bits I needed using ChatGPT.
And I got this version working in 2 days.
And over the last 12 months I’ve used ChatGPT to help me create analysis work in R that would have probably taken me months to do if I was starting from scratch.
So, I’m starting to think of this as the shift from one level of coding, where it’s handcraft, to the next level, where it’s working at the level of blocks or units, and it’s not important to create every bit yourself.
You still need to know how to write it if you needed to, and understand what’s going on so you can debug it and all that.
But… you just don’t need to write every last line of code.
It’s like going from using a saw to a chainsaw.
A chainsaw for your mind.
I’m the kind of person that likes the idea of old tools, I’ve written about using dip pens, for heaven’s sake.
But an 18 day saving in time is something else too.
Now, where will this take us?
One thing is that we will not need as many people doing the jobs that are there now – you’ll need fewer coding jobs in these big firms because the coders will jobs will be more productive.
Of course, the world runs on code, so you probably need more people who can do that, so you might end up with many, many more coders and a huge increase in productivity, and the ability to use all this capability to transform our economies into lean, green ones.
That could happen too.
And some people will suffer.
If you know anything about India, you’ll have heard about Gandhi and his spinning wheel.
His idea was one of self-reliance, of making your own cloth rather than buying expensive, imported cloth.
If you use FLOSS software you’re using a spinning wheel, not going to a mall.
FLOSS software makes you self reliant, but only because so many others out there have put in the time and effort to make that possible.
So, if you have a spinning wheel, what can you do with it?
I think that if you’re a person that works in an industry affected by these models – coding for starter, but perhaps writing, or music, or design – if might be wise to consider what you’re competing against now.
I’ve heard sayings on the line of countries don’t fight, economies do. Or, companies don’t compete, supply chains do.
I think in our world it’s going to be people don’t create value, workflows do.
Something on those lines.
It’s less about you and a job and more about the workflow you manage and what the results are.
If you can get a set of tools together that creates an outcome that is valuable, quicker, cheaper and better than the competition, then you’ve got something to sell.
That’s not going to change.
These tools will change jobs, but they won’t change humanity, and the way we interact.
We just need to figure out how to go to work now.
Cheers,
Karthik Suresh